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Prediction Market Addiction: Where to Start

By Chris Beerman, MSW, LCSW, CADC. Gambling and alcohol therapist, Logan Square, Chicago. Reviewed October 27, 2026.

Prediction markets don't call themselves gambling. On Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood and the others you "trade" an "event contract" on a "regulated exchange," and the contract can be on an election, a game, the Fed, or tomorrow's high temperature in Chicago. For the person checking the app at one in the morning, the loop is the one I see in every other kind of gambling: stake, wait, check, chase.

I'm a gambling and alcohol therapist in Chicago's Logan Square, and I see clients in person and by secure video across Illinois and Minnesota. Prediction markets are new enough that most of what's written about them is either marketing or law. This page is the front door to what I've written for the people actually using them: how to tell when trading has become betting, how the markets are built, and how to get out, because no state self-exclusion list covers them.

Start With the Question

The free gambling test works for prediction markets as well as it does for sportsbooks, because the questions are about what the betting is doing to you, not what the app calls it. Nine questions, about two minutes, scored in your browser and never sent anywhere, not even to me.

Take the Free Gambling Addiction Test

The Reading Path

Four guides, in the order I'd suggest reading them.

  1. Are Prediction Markets Gambling? Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood & the Risk of Addiction. Where event contracts cross into gambling, and the legal fight over whether state law applies to them.
  2. You Can Bet on Chicago's Weather Every Day. That Tells You How Prediction Markets Are Built. Kalshi has listed a contract on Chicago's daily high every day since 2021. What that says about the product.
  3. Betting on the Midterms: When Following Politics Turns Into Gambling. When following the news becomes an all-day loop of headlines, market checks and trades.
  4. How to Self-Exclude From Prediction Markets: Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood & More. Your state list doesn't cover them. Closing every door, platform by platform, and what to do first.

Most people who use prediction markets also bet on sports or trade, so the neighboring pages matter: sports betting addiction, where to start, and trading addiction, where to start. If you're in Minnesota, my Minnesota self-exclusion guide covers prediction markets in its Step 4.

Every prediction market post, newest first

Where the Law Stands

The exchanges say they're regulated by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission and that state gambling law doesn't apply to them. Illinois disagrees: in June 2026 the state brought sports "exchange wagers" under its Sports Wagering Act, and on October 2, 2026, a federal judge in Chicago preliminarily blocked the licensing requirement as applied to Kalshi while the case goes on. Minnesota made running a prediction market a felony this year, and a federal court has blocked enforcement against federally registered exchanges since July 27, 2026. Both fights are still moving.

What the numbers can't show. No exchange publishes Illinois volume, and the "volume" figures that circulate nationally are notional contract value, not money wagered or lost. So prediction markets are missing from every state gambling statistic, including mine. The Illinois sports betting data page explains the gap under "What these numbers leave out."

What matters for you is simpler than the court fights: whatever the judges decide, nothing puts you on an exchange's blocked list except you. If you want out, exclude yourself in each app now rather than waiting for a ruling.

If You'd Rather Talk Than Read

Reading helps some people decide. Others need to say it out loud to someone who won't flinch. That's what the free 15-minute consultation is for: tell me what's been happening, ask whatever you want to ask, and we'll figure out whether working together makes sense. You don't need to have decided anything before the call.

Schedule a Free 15-Minute Consultation

How I treat prediction market addiction, what it costs and which insurance I take is on the prediction market addiction therapy page. If someone you love is the one trading, start with help for partners and families and the partner gambling test.

If You Need Help Right Now

Illinois gambling helpline: call 1-800-GAMBLER or text GAMB to 833234. Free and confidential, any hour.

National Problem Gambling Helpline: call or text 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738).

If you're in a mental health crisis or thinking about suicide, call or text 988.

If you're in immediate danger, call 911.

If you need to stop today, the 24-Hour Betting Shutdown Plan walks through the first day step by step.

Last reviewed October 27, 2026. This page is general information, not legal or medical advice, and it doesn't create a therapist-client relationship.